Spatial analysis of resources and environmental carrying capacity in Iran

Urbanization and mass movement of the population from rural areas and small cities to megacities have led to environmental, economic, and social problems in Iran. In dealing with these challenges, assessing resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) is considered an effective method to leverage space and capital to achieve sustainable development. This study aimed to rank the provincial RECC in Iran. Toward this purpose, environmental indices were generated from remotely sensed and statistical census data. Then, the provinces were scored in terms of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacities, and RECC using the mean variance analysis method. Results demonstrated that in most areas, there is no relationship between economic and infrastructural capacities and development. Statistically, a correlation coefficient of −0.53 between economic and environmental carrying capacities indicated excessive use of environmental capacities. Moreover, the spatial distribution pattern of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacity was entirely heterogeneous between the provinces; there was a northeast–southwest pattern in terms of infrastructural capacity and an economic pattern from north to south. The distribution pattern of RECC is most consistent with the environmental capacity, pointing at the high weight of the indicators of the RECC model. In conclusion, this research offers a new vision for policymakers and provides a theoretical and applicable framework for implementing sustainable strategies in land-use planning. It is recommended that the RECC concept and tools can be used not only for planning but also for measuring the efficiency of spatial development programs and establishing land balances in the region.     

非柔性连接石化储罐配管温差应力分析与对策

储罐配管在温差作用下产生热位移会导致管壁产生热应力，未采用柔性连接的配管由于热应力集中作用可能发生破漏。针对与石油化工储罐非柔性连接的配管的安全问题，应用ANSYS有限元分析软件模拟计算石化企业典型配管的热应力分布；根据不同类型配管的分析结果，提出了工程技术与管理方面的针对性安全措施。研究结果表明:温差效应对石化储罐配管热应力影响显著，随内外温差的增加，配管应力集中的区域增大，最大热应力值增大；补偿措施能够改善配管的柔性，降低配管应力；约束载荷限制配管热膨胀从而增大配管应力；三通管是多根配管接合的区域，这种复杂管道交汇处会形成明显应力集中。研究结果对于提高石油化工非柔性连接配管安全性有一定的指导意义。     

基于文本挖掘的煤矿安全隐患管理研究

为探寻安全隐患的内在特征，加深安全管理人员对安全隐患的理解，提升安全管理效率。以潞安集团司马煤业有限公司2009—2015年安全隐患记录为数据源，利用Word2Vec模型构建安全隐患词向量模型，从模型中获取各类安全隐患主要相关词，利用桑基图解释安全隐患在不同隐患地点、生产作业单位的特征分布，并进一步揭示相关安全隐患的细节特征。结果表明:词向量模型能有效发掘安全隐患特征，桑基图能突出呈现安全隐患的关键信息流动。上述措施有助于管理人员深刻理解安全隐患数据中蕴含的潜在规律，为煤矿安全隐患排查治理工作提供依据，指导安全管理实践。     

施工组织正式网络结构特征对组织安全行为的影响关系研究

为提升建筑施工安全管理水平，探讨施工组织正式网络的结构特征对组织安全行为的影响关系。基于社会网络分析方法，引入安全沟通作为中介变量，建立施工组织正式网络结构特征、安全沟通和组织安全行为的假设模型。基于91个施工组织正式网络结构特征分析，使用多层回归分析方法检验假设模型。结果表明:网络密度、出度中心势和聚类系数均显著正向影响组织安全行为；中间中心势和平均路径长度均显著负向影响组织安全行为；入度中心势对组织安全行为影响不显著；安全沟通分别在出度中心势和中间中心势与组织安全行为的关系中起完全中介作用；安全沟通分别在密度、平均路径长度和聚类系数与组织安全行为的关系中起部分中介作用；安全沟通在入度中心势与组织安全行为的关系中未起到中介作用。     

英国国防工业安全生产法制体系研究及对我国的启示

为建立健全我国国防工业安全生产法制体系，从构建历程、宏观设计和微观建设要点等方面对英国国防工业安全生产法制体系展开系统研究，并分析当前我国国防工业安全生产法制体系存在的主要问题以及英国国防工业安全生产法制体系建设对我国的启示。结果表明:在宏观设计方面，英国构建以国防安全局为监管主体的高度扁平化监管体系；在微观建设方面，其更加注重国防工业安全生产法律体系的层次性、内容完备性，法律的实操性、更新机制，以及监管职责界定的建设。借鉴英国经验，指出将国防工业安全生产法制体系建设提升至国家战略高度，实现国防工业安全生产专门立法、强化法律可操作性、完善法律制修订机制和科学界定监管职责是我国今后努力的重要方向。     

基于云模型的高校消防安全标准化评估研究

为评估高校消防安全标准化程度,明确高校消防安全标准化体系,结合高校消防安全标准化体系的模糊性,将高校消防安全标准化等级划分为5个级别,采用黄金分割法将权重云、评价云划分成5个云模型,建立能够反映高校消防安全标准化等级模糊性的云模型。该模型运用于某高校消防安全标准化等级评估中,评估结果客观合理,实用性较强,为后续标准化提升提供了参考依据。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间企业生产安全风险管理

本文在分析新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间企业安全风险特点的基础上,建立了疫情期间安全风险管理模型,分析了这一特殊时期企业外部变化,以及企业内部人、物、环境、管理变化带来特殊安全风险,提出了针对性的风险管控措施。     

可拓优度评价法在城市区域消防安全评价中的应用

为了解决城市区域消防安全评价的复杂性和不确定性,本文运用可拓优度评价法,根据相关文件并结合城市区域消防的实际情况,从火灾危险程度、城市区域特征、消防实力水平和社会管理状态4个方面选取17个指标,建立了城市区域消防安全评价指标体系并划分了消防安全等级,以洛阳市西工区为例对城市区域消防安全评价的可拓优度方法进行了验证。结果表明,可拓优度方法可以准确反映出该区域消防安全水平。     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

Perceptions of safety on a shared road: Driving,cycling, or walking near an autonomous vehicle

Introduction: While improved safety is a highly cited potential benefit of autonomous vehicles (AVs), at the same time a frequently cited concern is the new safety challenges that AVs introduce. The literature lacks a rigorous exploration of the safety perceptions of road users who will interact with AVs, including vulnerable road users. Addressing this gap is essential because the successful integration of AVs into transportation systems hinges on an understanding of how all road users will react to their presence. Methods: A stated preference survey of the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan statistical area (Phoenix MSA) was conducted in July 2018. A series of ordered probit models was estimated to analyze the survey responses and identify differences between various population groups with respect to the perceived safety of driving, cycling, and walking near AVs. Results: Greater exposure to and awareness of AVs are not uniformly associated with increases in perceived safety. Various attitudinal factors, level of AV automation, and other intrinsic and extrinsic factors are related to safety perceptions of driving, walking, and cycling near AVs. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, such as gender, age, income, employment, and automobile usage and ownership, have various relationships with perceived safety. Conclusions: Cycling near an AV was perceived as the least safe activity, followed by walking and then driving near an AV. Both similarities and differences were observed among the factors associated with the perceived safety of different travel alternatives. Practical Applications: Public perception will guide the development and adoption of AVs directly and indirectly. To help maintain control of public perception, transportation planners, decision makers, and other stakeholders should consider more deliberate and targeted messaging to address the concerns of different road users. In addition, more careful pilot testing and more direct attention to vulnerable road users may help avoid a backlash that could delay the rollout of this technology.